Climate and Prediction
As a
newspaper of record, Wellington’s Dominion Post does a good job in keeping us
abreast of climate predictions. Anyone
noting these over a period of time will have an endless source of
entertainment, given that one by one they fail to deliver their doomsday
scenarios.
The
DomPost of 3 April 2014 tells us that over the next 100 years “the
Environmental Ministry advice said a rise of between 0.5 and 0.8m should be
prepared for, but the new report, from US geophysicist Paul Komar, said it was
more likely to be at least a metre.”
Well, we
don’t have Dr Komar’s justification for this extraordinary figure, but we can
provide input from others. For example, Columbia University gives
a relatively linear global sea level increase of 3.2mm per annum over the last
two decades. This makes for a one metre
rise in 312 years, or less than a foot in the next 100 years. Dr Komar needs 10mm per annum if his
prediction starts now, and a whole lot more if there’s a delay. Given the glacial pace of sea level rise,
this strains credibility, but the nature of prediction is such that it’s hard
to challenge. It requires belief, which
is hard for the sceptic to accept.
Tectonic
effects are so difficult to predict that no-one really tries except in the most
generalised manner. Yet the effects on
localised sea levels are far more significant than sea-level rise. The Solomon Islands' Ranongga is just one
example, Japan’s 2011 earthquake another.
The
panic that seems to accompany sea-level rise can hardly be justified on the
grounds of cost, and again, Japan’s 2011 earthquake is a good example. Despite Japan’s best efforts at protecting
itself, the World Bank’s estimated economic cost was US$235 billion, making it
the costliest natural disaster in world history. In contrast, the gradual pace of sea-level
change, 150mm in the last century, has resulted solely in coastal storm damage
and its costs, since amelioration has, if anything, declined over that
period. Furthermore, the inclination to
build on areas vulnerable to storm damage has increased.
There is
a false sense of perspective in this sea-level rise prediction. 100 years is the equivalent of a lifetime, a
figure that makes sense to people in a way that kiloyears and megayears that
climatologists deal with does not. Yet
we move house every six
to eight
years, meaning our investment in a specific property is very unlikely to be
lifelong. The average
life expectancy of a house is 90 years, with properties in attractive or
suburban coastal areas likely to be on the short end of the scale as the intrinsic
value is realised in new building.
Properties in less attractive, more remote, coastal areas won’t lose
value suddenly, rather, investment in them will decline over decades until the
buildings fail to meet council standards.
Predictions
cover such a range of possibilities that they tend to be highly forgettable
until the one correct guess in a thousand gets trumpeted abroad and the
predictor gets their moment of fame. But
the myriad that fail remain archived for those who delve into the records. The British Meteorological Office forecast
a rise of 0.3°C between 2004 and 2014.
To date, 12-month average temperatures have risen just 0.03°C. They also forecast half of all years between
2010 and 2020 are likely to exceed 1998, the hottest year so far. Not looking good – calendar year averages
since then have been well below. Indeed,
global temperatures have remained almost completely flat since 1998 in spite of predictions
of increases through steadily rising CO2 levels. Extrapolating the linear trendline between 1998 and 2013, for an increase of 0.038°C over the 17 year period, gives a 100 year increase of just 0.22°C. Accurate? No, but I'll happily pit my estimate against The British Met Office's.
Apocalyptic
predictions are part and parcel of Judaic religious belief and its offshoots.
Their routine failure to materialise ironically reinforces belief through
sophistry. Even in a post-Christian era,
they form an ineradicable part of the Western world-view. As British historian Norman Cohn notes, “The
old religious idiom has been replaced by a secular one, and this tends to
obscure what otherwise would be obvious. For it is the simple truth that,
stripped of their original supernatural sanction, revolutionary millenarianism
and mystical anarchism are with us still.”
The apocalyptic vision of new-age prophets’ climatic catastrophe offers unwitting
new-age believers the catharsis of personal redemption through new-age
canonical law. Reduce your carbon
footprint, eschew consumption, support sustainability, share your country with
those less fortunate, leave animals alone, repudiate genetic modification, ban
fossil and nuclear power.
They should beware of what they wish for.
