Friday, 19 April 2024

Diary of Defeat

It seems to me that the West[1] is undergoing a transformational change the like of which it has never seen before.  It might compare with the Mughal conquests, Islam’s conquest of the Levant and North Africa, or the expansion of the USSR, with lower mortality.  It is a change wrought by ideologies[2], yet most Westerners seem insensitive to them, or acquiesce without demur.  In this journal I aim to act as witness to this unopposed revolution.

August 2024

A FRIEND EMAILED ME with a link to a tweet of a German Muslim stating that "when Muslims become the majority, we will take over Germany by force. German laws will be replaced by Sharia law.”  Well, that’s Islam’s goal so nothing new there.  Then my friend checked the Muslim population of Germany and had second thoughts, at 4% he considered “it's a bit premature for a revolution yet!”  Well, not really, as I replied:

It's better to describe Islamic conquest as incremental rather than revolutionary.  It's also better to consider the increase in Muslim population in the West in terms of proportional increase, rather than absolute. 

Doctrinally, Muslims are expected to migrate in what's called hijrah.   Here's a definition.  Koran 4:100 - "Whoso migrateth for the cause of Allah will find much refuge and abundance in the earth, and whoso forsaketh his home, a fugitive unto Allah and His messenger, and death overtaketh him, his reward is then incumbent on Allah."  Muhammad said "The reward of deeds depends upon the intentions and every person will get the reward according to what he has intended. So whoever emigrated for worldly benefits or for a woman to marry, his emigration was for what he emigrated for."  Thus, migration redeems a Muslim's previous sins and increases his or her chances of entering paradise.  Martyrdom - dying while killing unbelievers in the name of Islam - guarantees this. 

Nasty British jihadist Anjem Choudary was a former spokesman for al-Muhajiroun, which is Arabic for The Emigrants (that's the 'haj' part of Muhajiroun).   Known as ALM or the Islamic Thinkers Society, it is proscribed as a terrorist group, and Choudary’s role as director led him to be convicted in July 2024 and sentenced to life imprisonment.  That is, spending the rest of his life converting other prisoners, by force if necessary, to Islam.

Statistically, Muslim populations grow much faster than total populations, meaning that at some time in the distant future Muslims will outnumber non-Muslims in the West, which is precisely what happened in the Middle East, formerly majority Christian.  I only have accurate figures for NZ, which are based on censuses.  For example, the average annual growth rate from 1976 (Muslim population 1,341) to 2018 (Muslim population 57,726) is 9.1%.  NZ's non-Muslim population growth for the same period is 0.91% per annum, meaning the rate of Muslim population growth over 42 years is 10.3 times that of non-Muslims.  Extrapolate that!  It's fair to assume other Western countries will see similar rates.  I'll update these figures once the 2023 census 'religious affiliation' stats are available. 

And it's not just migration that increases the Muslim population.  Conversion to Islam is extremely easy; leaving Islam incurs the death penalty - the deterrent effect of this should not be underestimated.  Conversion occurs for many reasons but the main ones are likely to be for purposes of marriage, or for an easier life in prison.  Other reasons include voluntary or spontaneous conversion, but I think an undeclared reason, acting as an explanation for the greater proportion of women converting, is that Islam is a very patriarchal way of life, in contrast to the increasingly feminised West.  It is also strongly rules-based (fatwas), rather than ethics-based, which suits people who think Western morality is too far out of kilter, or who feel the need for fixed rules to live by.

Demographically, the problem is a lot more serious.  One thing that Muslims have that no other religion, ideology or political system has is the ummah, the nationhood of Muslims.  This is extremely powerful, given that Muslims tend towards greater piety than Gloriavale, though do it in public.  We can see this in the way that UK Muslims, who tend to co-locate in electoral districts, had a powerful effect on this year's election, based on ant-Israel sentiment.  And that will get more significant as the proportion of Muslims increases. 

There is something called 'the percentage rule', which takes two forms.  First is a paper by Harvard polsci prof Erica Chenoweth saying that it only takes 3.5% activists in a population to effect a change.   Second is one which states that as the proportion of Muslims in the population rises, certain effects become noticeable.  Violence increases and Islam's supremacism takes control.

Then there's the tipping point. A research paper shows that when 10 per cent of a population are strongly committed to a viewpoint, the view rapidly becomes the majority.

Premature, you ask?  When does one start to oppose the inevitable?  Or does one accept capitulation, as many in the West seem happy to do?

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